Taiwan and the Window of Weak spot within the Markets

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This week will probably be lack of many updates due to the chilly climate.

However I may need posts like this:

We’re at the moment on a 4-5 day “work” journey. Providend would often have an organization retreat and if we are able to, it is going to be abroad.

This 12 months, we’re having it in Taiwan.

That is the place we’re staying in sleepy Tamsui in New Taiwan Metropolis.

That is the view from my resort:

Tamsui may be very removed from Taipei however I assume it’s the candy spot in protecting prices in examine however nonetheless a fairly affordable expertise.

Taiwan presently is chilly.

That is me on the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Corridor. We ended our scavenger hunt right here. I used to be right here virtually 15-16 years in the past so it’s a fairly good go to.

I’ve been to Taiwan 3 occasions, all earlier than 2007 and I can’t recall was the transit and practice community this established again then, however I assumed it’s specific good taking time to maneuver round as an alternative of taking Uber and dashing right here and there.

Uber in Taipei is affordable however inter-city smart, the associated fee is just not actually that low-cost.

Meals in Taiwan, relative to Singapore is fairly price it. We introduce Max, our head of expat to Chinese language dishes. Many people weren’t used to a few of the meals in Taiwan, significantly these stuff with bamboo shoots.

Every of those meals that we ate was about 9-10 dishes.

I sat subsequent to our Head of Folks & Finance, and based mostly on the meals coming, he puzzled whether or not he accepted the price range for the meals.

Meals on this place prices S$45 per head.

I’ve received to thank our retreat committee for organizing this 12 months’s retreat. Ray (rightmost), heads the committee, along with two of our members Alvin (leftmost) and Mike (2nd from left). That is double accountability apart from their standard work.

Ray grew to become a brand new cilent adviser at first of the 12 months and has the accountability to scale as much as be as robust as our senior consumer advisers. Alvin is a part of our nascent Wealth group phase and Mike is certainly one of our most important insurance coverage specialist at Havend. There are gross sales targets to satisfy so its not really easy for them to double hat.

In my restricted time going round Taiwan, I felt that Taiwan nonetheless retains a number of the “really feel” earlier than 2010. The buildings are outdated, there weren’t indicators of recent, new buildings.

The price of meals is barely cheaper however isn’t too removed from Singapore. But, the worth of properties rivals that of Singapore HDB flats, and appears extra run down. To make issues worse, the median wage in Taiwan is nearer to SG$1,000 a month.

Most can’t afford a house, and need to lease or dwell with their household.

I assume this is similar as a number of different locations.

The Window of Weak spot is Right here

This morning we have now the expiration of the VIX name choices, which occurs often within the third week of the month.

Within the final quarter of final 12 months, we seen a really bullish transfer after the choices expiration in October, which coincides with dovish feedback by the FED.

Normally, there are constructive flows finish of the 12 months from company buybacks, the necessity to put leverage collateral again to work, and shorter buying and selling durations means it is rather conducive for the market to run up, aided by seller flows.

All these ends on January seventeenth 2024 on the VIX expiration, which is that this morning.

From now until 2nd of February, we have now a window of weak spot, which is a interval that’s not supported by these optimistic flows to assist the market.

If we nonetheless have an overhang from a difficult macroeconomic state of affairs, the market may transfer down in a short time as a result of lack of assist.

We’re seeing increasingly more demand for fixed-strike volatility calls, additional and additional out, which signifies the cautious to bearish draw back of market individuals.

These two months until mid-March could be wobbly.

It is going to be interval for long-term buyers so as to add. For merchants, it’s a interval to be extra cautious.

Whether or not we take a stair-step down or a plunge will depend on whether or not there are catalysts that aren’t priced into the market and whether or not there are supportive flows.

Personally, I feel that as a result of increasingly more of this data is put out, the market entrance runs this information to a sure extent because the market individuals tries to place themselves earlier than these durations.

It will imply that the diploma of impact of those flows may be very a lot dampened.

I’ve not checked my strategic systematic portfolio in any respect this week however given how small-cap worth and non-market cap weighted indexes have been doing, I do know it’s not doing too effectively.

I will probably be biking in Taiwan subsequent week.

Allow us to see if I’ll nonetheless have the power to jot down.


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